KANSAS CITY, Missouri. - Good morning blogger,
As the Chiefs prepare for their final preseason game tonight, we're monitoring the possibility of weekend thunderstorms, calm tropics, and warm weather!
Calm tropical region this morning:
We are now experiencing one of the calmest hurricane seasons ever recorded in the Atlantic basin. For the third time in 60 years, we can go through the entire month of August without a named storm.
There is a statistic called Accumulated Cyclone Energy or ACE Score:
Activity this season was 11% of the August 25 average, the quietest start to a hurricane season since the late 1980s. There have been three ill-named hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin this season: Alex, Bonnie, and Colin, all of which occurred before July 4th. There hasn't been a named storm since July 3, when mild tropical storm Colin hit a few hours later, or 53 days without a named storm.
This period of silence continues today. The 20/20 weather predicts this will be a windless season, unlike all other predictions that predict a new season of wild hurricanes. Why so quiet? LRC is the reason. The first signs of this calm hurricane season appear in October and November, when last year's hurricane season suddenly ended in silence after October's hurricane season.
LRC also provides insights and methodologies / technologies to predict our main goals for this season:
I created this chart last March. Now look at yesterday's GFS (US model):
The GFS model has predicted about a dozen storms this season. This model was very unreliable at this point of the season. Well, this one, which appeared and took shape within a week, has a better chance of being accurate. How come? Again, due to the LRC. Notice where this bass forms, possibly called a hurricane. It was formed along the planned training / development zone that I designed five months ago.
I have drawn two possible paths for this potential tropical system. Let's see what the models will look like next week. Keep in mind that this has been a very low season so far and will likely end below average as expected. In a windless year, there is still a chance to approach thunderstorms.
Weather in Kansas City:
The weather looks good for driving too close to Arrowhead this afternoon, but wear sunscreen. There may be clouds with less than 10% chance of rain. It will be hot today with a high close to 92 °.
Between Saturday and Tuesday we see a good chance of rain with the possibility of heavy thunderstorms. We will measure the chance of rain at KSHB 41 tonight and tonight. Here is one of the precipitation forecasts from the same GFS model that shows the potential of the tropical system:
Tuesday morning shows 1-4 inches of rain in our area. The best time is late Saturday evening, late Sunday evening and possibly late Monday evening. There will be several thunderstorms in our area during one, two or all three of these periods.
Thank you for sharing your weather experience and for taking a few minutes a day to read the weather blog. Happy Thursday!
Gary
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