KANSAS CITY, Missouri. -- Another beautiful morning to start our day as temperatures drop into the 60s with less fog compared to the last two days. Overall, we should be slightly above average for the next few days, probably through Saturday, before it gets much colder on Sunday.
The tropics are active with two hurricanes, Earl and Daniel. This is the first time since mid-September 2020 that two hurricanes have become active in the Atlantic basin. It's also the week of peak hurricane season, so it's a little unusual that the tropics are inactive. . There are several other systems in the vicinity of Africa that are being monitored. The only one who can be a problem for the island of Bermuda is the Earl.
For us, the difficult forecast day is Sunday. There are several solutions to how the day will play out, from mid 60s with rain almost all day to sunshine in the low 80s. So there is more clarity with Sunday. It could also affect the race at Kansas Speedway.
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Kansas City forecast.Today. Mostly sunny and warm with highs in the mid 80s.
Fair and seasonal tonight with lows in the low 60s.
Tomorrow. Almost the same.
Friday: Slightly warmer in the upper 80s.
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Discussion.
Big difference in starting the day today compared to yesterday. the sky is clearer this morning. By the way, don't be surprised if you see another forest fire smoke cloud in the area today and tomorrow. We had a few of these in the sky yesterday afternoon and evening. This smoke comes from wildfires in Canada and the western United States. There are two main parish areas, one in eastern Canada and the other in the northern and western plains of the United States.
Dark shades of gray represent smoke conditions.
Fog in West Dakota, through Montana and Wyoming could be a bigger problem for us tomorrow.
So there it is.
Will it rain on Sunday?We have to warm up on the spot until Saturday. The air temperature will be a few degrees higher than average in the afternoon. Friday and Saturday could top out in the 80s ahead of the next cold front. The trick to the forecast is the timing of the next front on Saturday, and that may have more to do with the potential for development and the likely location of an upper-level storm. If it develops near that area, it will delay the arrival of the cold front and also bring more rain for Sunday.
When I see some of the models portraying it, it reminds me oddly of winter storms. A disturbance that strengthens and cools the air just above the area, one of those rain-rain/snow combinations that turns into heavy, wet, snow-like stuff. Of course that's not going to happen, but if you take the model data and extrapolate it to January, you might get some weird local snow cases like this.
A difference of several hundred miles in the position of this developing upper level storm means a HUGE difference in local weather.
From a temperature-only perspective, Sunday's highs are:
Regardless of the model, closer to the main system it appears to be cooler.
It's even cooler in Canada, with highs nearing 60 degrees and afternoon rain. ICON is somewhere in the middle, with rain ending just after sunrise Sunday and a strong upper-level low further into northeast Missouri.
So where this thing grows and strengthens will determine whether we have a great day Sunday or a sudden wet and rainy day with cool temperatures.
The reason some models do what they do on Sunday is how they handle this descent into the jet stream.
By the way, this hot dome is really impressive. Yesterday, records of 116 degrees heat were set in parts of California, including Sacramento.
The temperature in Salt Lake City, Utah reached 105 degrees, the 33rd time this year it has reached 100 degrees or more. The previous record for over 100 degrees was 21 days.
California wine country is on fire. It is from yesterday.
Therefore, Sunday is the day when you should be careful in case something unexpected happens. Right now I'm leaning toward a compromise on the dates, maybe not as far west of Kansas City as the EURO, but not as far northeast of Kansas City as the GFS. My thoughts are that maybe it will stop raining more and the temps will warm up to near 70 degrees in the afternoon.
We'll see how it goes.
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